The spring bounce numbers are finally rolling in.  Articles about the strength of the housing this time of year always amuse me.

Reporters can usually make a case for a strong market, a weak market, or whatever market they believe is happening.  They compare the housing starts, the number of 30, 60 or 90 day lates, or whatever other metric they like, and then compare them to a year ago, or even 5 years ago.

The problem is, we have had so many issues over the last few years, robo-signing, massive bank settlements, historic foreclosure rates, choppy jobs reports, and the list goes on.  If they compare any report from any period of time, many reporters (and most politicians) will make a case for whatever they believe is happening in the market.

I just read a confusing article on Bloomberg.  It’s posted at http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-12/housing-rebound-signaled-as-banks-resume-foreclosures-mortgages.html

The title to the article notes a “housing rebound signaled”, however the article made me wonder “What rebound signals are they talking about?”

Let me explain –

“Rebound” Point #1 – Foreclosures up
The article states that repossession of homes are down, but in some states they are up dramatically. “Foreclosure starts — notices of default or scheduled auctions — increased in 31 states in the second quarter from a year earlier.”

“Rebound” Point #2 – Process taking longer
In the next paragraph, we see that the process is also taking longer. “The foreclosure process in the U.S. increased to an average of 378 days in the second quarter, the highest in records dating back to 2007.”

“Rebound” Point #3 – Down, then Up
But here is where I got confused for yet another moment. Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics Inc., predicts that home prices will decline 1 percent in 2012 and then increase by 1 percent in 2013.

So let me get this straight – default notices are up in 31 states, and the process is taking over a year to complete – on average.  That means that a year from now that house may finally hit the market.  On average.  Mr. Zandi, why will prices go up when these houses finally hit the market?

Since last year, we have been telling you in our emails and at our WREIA meetings, that we still have 3-5 years of this housing quagmire.  I think we still have 2-4 years of this choppy sideways action in the housing markets.  Do you begin to agree when you dig a little deeper than the headlines?

The point I am trying to make is – Market confusion will create opportunity.  And my forecast for the next few years is red hot with opportunity.

Even today, we still have record low interest rates, but very few people have been able to qualify.  For many people, after 5 years of falling prices they are now underwater on their homes!  They want to move up, move down, or move to a new location where they may find a better job – but they can’t.

That is why you need to join us next Monday at WREIA.

You should know more about Wholesale Lease Options. 

That is the topic at WREIA Network in July.  We will be talking about a match-making service that some property owners would like to know more about – because it will help them solve their problems.

Our speaker, Joe McCall knows how to solve these specific problems, and is really good at what he does.  Joe finds people that want to move, but for a variety of reasons, they choose to lease their property instead of sell.  Other people want to move into that same property, but can’t qualify, yet. So, he puts these two parties together, and Shazam!, problem solved.   By the way, Joe makes a nice profit for providing the service – with very little risk.